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Mon Sep 08 21:19:16 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   But, woe, your hashrate didn't mine that block. p2pool got it.

Mon Sep 08 21:18:49 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   There would be several options. The simplest would be to /still/ mine at Pool B with the hashrate of the other pools

Mon Sep 08 21:18:35 UTC 2014  <mircea_popescu>   X-Rob because you're not you. you're the pool op, who has to make a buck, and who is friends with the other pool ops.

Mon Sep 08 21:18:04 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   A sum large enough to tempt even the most honest of pool operators.

Mon Sep 08 21:17:46 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   But, let's assume that the bet is massive. Say, a million USD.

Mon Sep 08 21:17:30 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   My idea is, if I had bet on pool B mining block, and I controlled access to hardware that would bias pool B to mine the block, why wouldn't I just mine at pool B? I would win the bet -and- I would earn whatever percentage of the block the hardware earned, which would probably be more than 25% of the block reward.

Mon Sep 08 21:12:55 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   which is more

Mon Sep 08 21:12:50 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   I'll earn my PPLNS, plus I'll win the bet.

Mon Sep 08 21:12:37 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   Why would I hash privately and mine at pool C, whjen I can just hash at pool B to start with?

Mon Sep 08 21:12:03 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   This would only be an issue in a closed pool, however.

Mon Sep 08 21:11:51 UTC 2014  <mircea_popescu>   X-Rob well the advantage would be that they win a bet, get more btc.

Mon Sep 08 21:11:20 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   Wether or not they MINED the coins is a different question, but I can't see any advantage in pool C mining coins for pool B

Mon Sep 08 21:10:51 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   Both of those together can give you a good indication of who mined the block. If the destination of the coins is to a known pool address, then that pool ended up with the coins.

Mon Sep 08 21:10:15 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   There are two things that you can 'know' about a block. The destination of its mined coins, and the coinbase.

Mon Sep 08 21:09:45 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   and say.. eligius.

Mon Sep 08 21:09:42 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   so, let's disregard that

Mon Sep 08 21:09:35 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   but that's only 1%-ish of the network

Mon Sep 08 21:09:19 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   mircea_popescu: Well, p2pool is a specific case, and I probably shouldn't have used it, because that's one of the ones you /can/ be 100% certain about.

Mon Sep 08 21:08:30 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   However. There are a large number of pools where you can only guess. And 'because I say so' is about as much certainty as you're going to get.

Mon Sep 08 21:07:56 UTC 2014  <X-Rob>   so you can look at the block and know that, 100%, p2pool mined that block, for example

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